KEY DRIVERS OF OIL EXPLORATION

Price of oil - The backdrop to all conversations about oil exploration is both the price, and the current worldwide proven reserves, of oil. Taken together, these determine whether a specific exploration project will be economically attractive. In particular, the higher the price of oil, the more expensive it can be to draw oil out of the ground and still make a profit. This makes smaller fields, more remote fields, and oil that require more processing all the more viable.

Technology - As one might imagine, the availability of computers and advances in seismic technology have drastically improved the process of oil exploration, which was once little more than drilling a well and crossing your fingers. Advances have pushed the envelope of what is feasible, both in terms of finding where oil is and figuring out how to extract it once a company has identified where it is. General Electric Company (GE), for example, offers "Intelligent Drilling" technology, while a variety of engineering and seismic services firms offer the latest in technology to find oil.

Availability of oil field services - The availability of equipment and qualified professionals to service it represents a genuine bottleneck in oil exploration. The price of "oilfield services," which includes all the ancillary requirements for drilling and operating a well, rose 20% in 2006. Lack of availability of drill rigs (for drilling oil), skilled petroleum services professionals, seismic trucks, etc., can be a constraint in oil exploration. Note especially the increase in drill rig rental rates experienced around the world.

In its Q4/2007 Earnings Call, Andrew Gould of Schlumberger pointed out that, worldwide, 93% of jackups, 97% of semi-submersibles, and 100% of drillships are currently being utilized, with very few new offshore rigs coming online in 2008. This makes significant offshore growth in 2008 relatively unlikely, as capital is already being used almost to capacity. This lack of capital to meet demand will probably drive up oilfield services rates significantly.

Weather - Difficult weather, especially hurricanes and tropical storms, can create a challenging environment offer a double whammy for oil & gas companies. Not only do they disrupt current supply chains (making tanker deliveries difficult, for example, or disrupting refining processes), but also they may disrupt or disable offshore drill rigs. This disruption ultimately feeds through to the oil field services pricing, as discussed above. And, of course, leads to further difficult conversations about the impact of climate change on extreme weather patterns....